Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 00Z Tue May 07 2024 - 00Z Thu May 09 2024


...The active spring pattern continues across much of the Plains into the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

...Severe weather threat Monday afternoon into Monday night from the
Central to Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, spreading into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday...

...Heavy rains and flooding possible across portions of the Northern High
Plains and eastern portions of the Central to Southern Plains...

...Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions across the Southern High
Plains...

...Late season heavy snows for the Northern Rockies...

...Much below average temperatures expected across the Great Basin,
Central to Northern Rockies, while above average temperatures are forecast
across much of the Plains to the east coast...


There is no let up in sight for the active Spring time weather pattern
across large portions of the nation.  The next strong frontal boundary is
forecast to push into much of the Plains tonight and into the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. 
Thunderstorm activity currently beginning to develop across portions of
the Central Plains is expected to continue strengthen and expand across
portions of the Central to Southern Plains late this afternoon into Monday
night and spread eastward into the Lower Missouri Valley by early Tuesday.
 There is a moderate to high risk of severe weather across portions of the
Central to Southern Plains with large hail, high winds and tornadoes
possible.  Along with the severe weather threat, heavy rains are also
likely across eastern portions of the Central to Southern Plains from from
the eastern Dakotas, south through southwest Minnesota, much of Iowa,
western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.
 Across these areas the expected heavy rains may lead to areas of flash
and river flooding.  Heavy rains and flooding also possible across
portions of the Northern High Plains from eastern Montana into far
northeast Wyoming.  This next batch of heavy rains will be falling well to
the north of portions of Texas that have seen very heavy amounts over the
past week. 

The heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat will be pushing farther
to the east during Tuesday with areas from the Ohio Valley, northward into
the Great Lakes having the potential for highly impactful weather.  This
impactful weather will likely continue across the Ohio Valley region on
Wednesday and expand into the Tennessee Valley and Mid to Lower
Mississippi Valley as addition heavy rains, severe storms and flooding
develop ahead of the next strong system to push into the Mississippi
Valley by mid week.

No precipitation is expected over the next few days across the Southern
High Plains.  This along with lower relative humidities and windy
conditions will support an elevated to critical fire weather threat over
the next several days from southeast Colorado, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region, south through much of New Mexico and far West to
Southwest Texas.  Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across these
area for the extended period of fire weather danger.

Late season winter weather will be hanging on over the next two days
across portions of the Central to Northern Rockies and Great Basin from
central Idaho, western Montana into western Wyoming, northeast Utah and
north central Colorado.  Winter Storm warnings and winter weather
advisories are currently in effect across these areas for the potential of
late season heavy snow. 

Much below average temperatures expected over the next two days across the
Great Basin, Central to Northern Rockies with high temperatures 20 to 25
degrees colder than average.  In contrast...above average temperatures are
expected to stretch across much of the Plains, eastward to the east coast.
 Record high overnight lows are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday
morning from the Southeast, through the Southern Appalachians, Upper Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.  Scattered record high temperatures are
possible by Wednesday and Thursday from far South Texas, across the Gulf
Coast and into portions of Florida.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php